Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e434dcf99d7e1354abb5f2e3cbff811f3600928dc09e9d38a7128fdc577b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Down | 17c | 600$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 54c | 545.03$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Down | 49c | 514.79$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.46 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 45c | 378.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Up | 72c | 364.43$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 50c | 337$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Down | 29c | 258.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Up | 68c | 201.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Up | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Down | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Down | 42c | 162.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…5c4cbacked Up | 65c | 119.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…2c7bbacked Down | 43c | 117.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Down | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 55c | 100.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Up | 49c | 96.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…2ae4backed Down | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd787…512bbacked Up | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…da36backed Down | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…6554backed Down | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…406ebacked Down | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed Down | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Down | 43c | 37.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Down | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Up | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.