Us Midterms · resolved market
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830fe8eb8ab09693af821fba6d1d2c5369a696715c029b978e06df41cc614390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $997,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $993,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Yes | 22c | 74,455$16,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,615.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…0cc9backed Yes | 66c | 60,427$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 45c | 50,281$22,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,686.52 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…ed05backed Yes | 57c | 33,467$18,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,955.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 61c | 32,705$19,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,802.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes | 33c | 25,613$8,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,517.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…4ecbbacked No | 69c | 18,652$12,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,824.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…bb93backed Yes | 54c | 18,446$9,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,958.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked No | 53c | 17,265$9,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,172.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…0a5dbacked No | 41c | 16,022$6,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,486.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…166dbacked No | 31c | 15,300$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,507 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 39c | 13,594$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,289.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…8876backed No | 76c | 12,164$9,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 38c | 11,804$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,280.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 9,407$6,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,067.1 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 35c | 9,219$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,948.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 50c | 8,809$4,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,362.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,734$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f73…d926backed No | 31c | 8,320$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,778.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 63c | 8,254$5,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,235.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed No | 31c | 7,940$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,439.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 21c | 7,636$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.56 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 74c | 7,192$5,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,316.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed Yes | 3c | 7,034$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 65c | 6,612$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,316.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…d0e0backed Yes | 34c | 6,533$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 71c | 5,998$4,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…44edbacked Yes | 39c | 5,889$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 58c | 5,028$2,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 38c | 5,000$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 56c | 4,641$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604.25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…3e50backed No | 32c | 3,990$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,715.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…f091backed Yes | 41c | 3,878$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…2c90backed No | 29c | 3,794$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 3,410$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…41e1backed Yes | 70c | 3,174$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…df8ebacked Yes | 69c | 2,965$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 26c | 2,951$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.9 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 77c | 2,949$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a16…de5cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,642$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed No | 59c | 2,577$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 57c | 2,010$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…78e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,937$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 64c | 1,898$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 70c | 1,762$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 41c | 1,707$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 31c | 1,700$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked No | 32c | 1,674$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 77c | 1,615$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2f75backed Yes | 70c | 1,590$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…cb8fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,518$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…7927backed Yes | 70c | 1,414$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 31c | 1,400$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed No | 41c | 1,327$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed No | 43c | 1,190$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Yes | 63c | 1,095$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 18c | 1,018$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed No | 39c | 981$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked Yes | 63c | 917.21$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 37c | 900$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 76c | 899.33$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 58c | 822.88$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…d54abacked No | 61c | 763.2$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df4…f2c2backed Yes | 48c | 738.35$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 44c | 692.85$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes | 42c | 680.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 21c | 651.36$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 45c | 585.37$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.14 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 46c | 556.05$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 49c | 509$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 54c | 500$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…a4f2backed Yes | 41c | 487.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…0a31backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 49c | 461.56$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…1020backed Yes | 42c | 452.96$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe502…3403backed Yes | 57c | 443$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…0c8fbacked Yes | 54c | 381.27$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked No | 39c | 350.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…b8f1backed Yes | 53c | 336.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…0359backed Yes | 61c | 335.38$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…a87ebacked Yes | 59c | 334.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…71f5backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…1c95backed Yes | 62c | 320.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…8b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 267.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…ed51backed Yes | 69c | 250$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…45a6backed Yes | 50c | 247.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603b…0fbfbacked Yes | 69c | 244.73$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 73c | 225.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…e1b9backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 30c | 220.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…af99backed Yes | 31c | 218.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…120ebacked Yes | 48c | 214.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 63c | 195$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…2902backed Yes | 57c | 174.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%this page
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 0-2.5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%Yes won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 12.5-15%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 2.5-5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 5-7.5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 7.5-10%No won
- Will Trump lose the New Hampshire Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.