TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$993,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70ad…ae4bbacked Yes22c74,455$16,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,615.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0645…0cc9backed Yes66c60,427$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No45c50,281$22,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,686.524141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes57c33,467$18,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,955.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes61c32,705$19,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,802.192638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes33c25,613$8,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,517.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ab…4ecbbacked No69c18,652$12,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,824.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5323…bb93backed Yes54c18,446$9,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,958.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…40bbbacked No53c17,265$9,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,172.32714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-72.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…0a5dbacked No41c16,022$6,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,486.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…166dbacked No31c15,300$4,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed No39c13,594$5,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,289.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…8876backed No76c12,164$9,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,893.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed No38c11,804$4,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,280.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+121.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes64c9,407$6,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,067.115150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d5…95a6backed No35c9,219$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,948.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes50c8,809$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.42633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes4c8,734$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.213414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f73…d926backed No31c8,320$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,778.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes63c8,254$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.753250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No31c7,940$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes21c7,636$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.562114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes74c7,192$5,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,316.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa733…0e46backed Yes3c7,034$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.051225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes65c6,612$4,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.371216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4eb…d0e0backed Yes34c6,533$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa102…36d9backed Yes71c5,998$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid+78.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a3…44edbacked Yes39c5,889$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes58c5,028$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+240.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes73c5,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No38c5,000$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.941526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes56c4,641$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.254936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553a…3e50backed No32c3,990$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,715.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+213.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef4…f091backed Yes41c3,878$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x488a…2c90backed No29c3,794$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes2c3,410$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2370%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa301…41e1backed Yes70c3,174$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…df8ebacked Yes69c2,965$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No26c2,951$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.92714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes77c2,949$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.42842.9%12 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4a16…de5cbacked Yes26c2,642$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a18…f689backed No59c2,577$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes57c2,010$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.71225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes43c2,000$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8562114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95fa…78e1backed Yes9c1,937$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Yes64c1,898$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes70c1,762$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed No41c1,707$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0021457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e38…5d7fbacked No31c1,700$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1731656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked No32c1,674$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.91944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a08…2523backed Yes77c1,615$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x139b…2f75backed Yes70c1,590$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe88b…cb8fbacked Yes72c1,518$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4850…7927backed Yes70c1,414$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes31c1,400$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4304729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed No41c1,327$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.87580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+293.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x063b…0711backed No43c1,190$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe785…1180backed Yes63c1,095$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes18c1,018$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.45130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9506…1cd8backed No39c981$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…0abebacked Yes63c917.21$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No37c900$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5642850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes76c899.33$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes58c822.88$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.811428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd3…d54abacked No61c763.2$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2df4…f2c2backed Yes48c738.35$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes44c692.85$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ab…37e6backed Yes42c680.96$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes21c651.36$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes45c585.37$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.146432.8%21 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed Yes46c556.05$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+400%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes49c509$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+203%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No54c500$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…a4f2backed Yes41c487.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff00…0a31backed Yes43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes49c461.56$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.373815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb800…1020backed Yes42c452.96$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe502…3403backed Yes57c443$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb67…5ea3backed Yes68c441.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e7…0c8fbacked Yes54c381.27$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…f71abacked No39c350.37$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b0…b8f1backed Yes53c336.94$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffdf…0359backed Yes61c335.38$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383c…a87ebacked Yes59c334.31$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fcc…71f5backed No31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34f…1c95backed Yes62c320.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x703d…8b5cbacked Yes41c267.49$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8194…ed51backed Yes69c250$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4265…45a6backed Yes50c247.92$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x603b…0fbfbacked Yes69c244.73$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ca…bb25backed Yes63c238.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539f…cdcfbacked No42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes73c225.42$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d32…e1b9backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No30c220.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.961741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74d…af99backed Yes31c218.33$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8748…120ebacked Yes48c214.45$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes63c195$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c6…2902backed Yes57c174.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.