Us Midterms · resolved market
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166ad5a3914c4dfaf4e8eb851f167c04797f2abbb3427ddf688c363d1c68fe6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 12c | 10,086$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,899.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 10c | 8,830$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,966.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +240.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 10c | 8,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,675 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 6,283$4,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.09 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 7c | 4,813$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 36c | 4,641$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.64 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 8c | 4,050$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 44c | 2,434$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a16…de5cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,598$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 43c | 1,441$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 11c | 1,327$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.41 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…6fbabacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…5d4bbacked Yes | 34c | 916.95$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 69c | 769.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…1069backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 555$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.83 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed Yes | 79c | 508.02$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…8876backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 11c | 454$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…82aebacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Yes | 13c | 373.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 79c | 367.77$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…0553backed Yes | 17c | 185.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3a…1cffbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 64c | 114.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…0359backed Yes | 37c | 108.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%this page
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 0-2.5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 12.5-15%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 2.5-5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 5-7.5%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 7.5-10%No won
- Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%No won
- Will Trump lose the New Hampshire Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.