Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by December meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadded5f835f851ecce4700a3f4c2599fc25478578bc8a72c398da48d761d17a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $346,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $313,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…2725backed No | 0c | 68,288$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 2c | 17,278$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed No | 2c | 12,074$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 7c | 11,451$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.96 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b31…f365backed No | 1c | 9,617$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked No | 14c | 7,994$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 7,821$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…a022backed No | 1c | 7,594$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…7fedbacked No | 1c | 5,806$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4a49backed No | 2c | 5,230$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 11c | 4,951$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.35 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked No | 2c | 4,055$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed No | 1c | 3,844$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 3c | 3,323$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 8c | 3,138$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…6b03backed No | 17c | 2,631$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…285bbacked No | 10c | 2,511$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 2,203$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed No | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 9c | 1,973$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 20c | 1,551$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.71 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 11c | 1,435$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5c55backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 2c | 988$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked No | 1c | 955.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…bae2backed No | 3c | 910.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 683.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 7c | 625.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 19c | 450$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 14c | 422.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 76c | 400$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 360$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 11c | 329$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0f…7dd6backed No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed No | 13c | 296$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…db08backed No | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 257.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…8901backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked No | 17c | 198$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 17c | 172.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…d349backed No | 14c | 118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 78c | 112.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…2686backed Yes | 76c | 100.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…933abacked No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 19c | 77.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…a888backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…55edbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by December meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by July meeting?No won
- Fed rate cut by October meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by September meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.