Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b4b7478be68f0e47c04d5e16cb662975b2b77b324c508a04376f571d21bbeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 2c | 14,405$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 3c | 4,228$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…a15cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,346$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 5c | 2,309$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 5c | 2,183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…fb59backed Yes | 5c | 2,114$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…ca58backed Yes | 2c | 1,283$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…fefbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,241$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…fa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,216$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,207$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e4…a214backed Yes | 4c | 1,199$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 973.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…36e6backed Yes | 4c | 778.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…69a2backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 6c | 621$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…538fbacked Yes | 4c | 511$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c4…93b1backed Yes | 4c | 510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…b996backed Yes | 4c | 463.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…67e4backed Yes | 5c | 460.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 450.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 4c | 355.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…c481backed Yes | 5c | 315.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by July meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by December meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by October meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by September meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.