Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by October meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e29916ff5a789d75e321d35b4308541fa60011dcc889003ae117aefec893d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…2725backed No | 0c | 69,850$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a8…6d0abacked No | 2c | 20,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…30edbacked No | 11c | 9,249$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…a022backed No | 2c | 6,909$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4a49backed No | 2c | 5,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…285bbacked No | 9c | 4,970$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…5786backed No | 1c | 4,833$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…c42ebacked No | 2c | 3,889$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 16c | 3,632$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.88 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 10c | 3,609$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.74 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…1c89backed No | 2c | 2,763$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed No | 13c | 2,673$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,426$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…39c2backed No | 1c | 2,127$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 9c | 2,042$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 15c | 1,921$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 74c | 1,600$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.98 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 76c | 1,382$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.91 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 79c | 1,200$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…8834backed No | 1c | 1,154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed No | 1c | 1,086$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked No | 10c | 988.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…a199backed No | 2c | 967.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 36c | 900.17$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.21 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 9c | 891.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…665dbacked No | 2c | 835$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 2c | 757.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 65c | 748.55$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…2e08backed No | 16c | 635.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…c3bbbacked No | 2c | 594.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 68c | 569.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 14c | 441.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 390.9$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 32c | 299.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…7a9abacked No | 11c | 268.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 13c | 268.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed No | 7c | 237.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed No | 23c | 220.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…bae2backed No | 6c | 169.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1323…6008backed Yes | 68c | 162.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed No | 39c | 115.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 69c | 101.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…49d8backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 31c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a0…96c7backed Yes | 70c | 42.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 72c | 38.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…e236backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by October meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by December meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by July meeting?No won
- Fed rate cut by September meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.