Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by September meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c480169572aedfbc99b440c48b35017eadd4f95ca0292f6e9d6e001daea5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $927,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,183,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe75b…fb46backed No | 4c | 60,000$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 75c | 48,729$36,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,204.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…61bbbacked No | 3c | 34,159$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…7143backed No | 4c | 22,282$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…431bbacked No | 33c | 20,000$6,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,550.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…0e81backed No | 34c | 18,441$6,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,323 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…4386backed No | 3c | 17,649$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 74c | 13,735$10,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.31 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…c42ebacked No | 3c | 13,717$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed No | 19c | 13,395$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 4c | 11,244$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed No | 3c | 10,696$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4a49backed No | 2c | 9,240$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356f…607bbacked No | 33c | 9,214$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…30edbacked No | 11c | 9,031$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 2c | 8,199$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 7,921$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…458ebacked No | 3c | 7,236$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 69c | 6,666$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.35 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…156ebacked No | 1c | 6,305$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…3461backed No | 40c | 5,612$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 46c | 5,528$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,966.32 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…49f9backed No | 3c | 5,023$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…84d9backed No | 40c | 4,978$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 55c | 4,736$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.32 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 57c | 4,444$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.3 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…8280backed Yes | 74c | 4,375$3,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…3d35backed No | 17c | 4,303$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…11e3backed No | 2c | 4,140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…6c66backed No | 2c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…049dbacked No | 3c | 3,858$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…9acfbacked No | 2c | 3,648$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228d…7b7ebacked No | 2c | 3,573$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,571$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…c6f7backed No | 8c | 3,554$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 3,548$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 76c | 3,356$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed No | 26c | 3,330$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 17c | 3,189$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…c8f8backed No | 3c | 2,936$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…0b7cbacked No | 26c | 2,926$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7cf7backed No | 3c | 2,713$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…45bcbacked No | 3c | 2,614$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 20c | 2,532$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.67 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 17c | 2,511$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.63 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed No | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…ff20backed No | 3c | 2,127$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed No | 7c | 2,086$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…9bc4backed No | 3c | 2,071$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked No | 3c | 2,030$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980b…034bbacked No | 2c | 2,009$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…d45abacked No | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 67c | 1,845$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…7752backed No | 19c | 1,842$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…94e0backed No | 3c | 1,790$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…4a1dbacked No | 3c | 1,741$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbb…93d6backed No | 3c | 1,513$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aca…f4c3backed No | 3c | 1,509$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 40c | 1,263$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f54…89cbbacked No | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 32c | 1,241$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…17babacked No | 5c | 1,211$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…ab8ebacked No | 2c | 1,174$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…c0cdbacked No | 3c | 1,156$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked No | 2c | 1,145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…4320backed No | 4c | 1,135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 1,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 52c | 1,116$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…3373backed No | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…8efcbacked No | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b18fbacked No | 3c | 1,056$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…0161backed No | 2c | 1,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 12c | 1,048$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…8ed4backed No | 2c | 1,045$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4f…b192backed No | 21c | 1,032$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed No | 20c | 1,032$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed No | 3c | 1,029$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked No | 33c | 1,008$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 15c | 1,001$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3515…8e36backed No | 3c | 931.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 69c | 892.2$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…55bebacked No | 18c | 874.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…b3dfbacked No | 3c | 866.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 8c | 802.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 780.8$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbd…fe0bbacked No | 3c | 777.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…c56bbacked No | 27c | 767.44$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…50ebbacked No | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…bfa8backed No | 3c | 736.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…0980backed No | 3c | 714.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…6f21backed No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…c633backed No | 4c | 710.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…9512backed No | 3c | 696.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…01c0backed No | 2c | 656.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed No | 8c | 631.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed No | 2c | 625.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…8901backed No | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…2eaebacked No | 3c | 598.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed rate cut by September meeting?this page
- Fed rate cut by December meeting?Yes won
- Fed rate cut by July meeting?No won
- Fed rate cut by October meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.