Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404737e79dbf827931f6c1c551c657431196c2d34b409938d00dea62417a0ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 36c | 10,979$3,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,938.19 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 35c | 5,184$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.1 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 51c | 3,412$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 61c | 3,174$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 3,138$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 63c | 2,083$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.83 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 39c | 1,799$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.23 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 66c | 1,701$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.47 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…6b87backed Yes | 37c | 1,080$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 54c | 933.76$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.27 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…8b46backed No | 77c | 898$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 69c | 842.95$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked No | 48c | 831.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 61c | 830.49$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.89 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked No | 62c | 808.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 69c | 804.85$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.55 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 705$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 65c | 702.2$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.51 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…f5c6backed No | 52c | 687.36$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 56c | 648.08$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.84 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 58c | 626.38$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 43c | 624.4$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 49c | 610$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 62c | 584.11$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…6ac0backed Yes | 46c | 573.98$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…afebbacked Yes | 41c | 457.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 56c | 450$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 51c | 419.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 414.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 67c | 396.73$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 64c | 338.67$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 37c | 337.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac7…8deebacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 72c | 291.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked No | 58c | 291.44$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 39c | 284$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 16c | 267.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 266.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 60c | 261.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 62c | 247.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 7c | 242.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a005backed No | 67c | 241.62$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 5c | 241.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 58c | 199.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…b1a5backed Yes | 45c | 191.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 75c | 191.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked No | 66c | 190.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 189.75$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 55c | 183.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 6c | 173.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 31c | 161.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…598cbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 55c | 135.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 65c | 115.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 62c | 97.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed No | 80c | 94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…c1bbbacked No | 59c | 93.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed No | 51c | 83.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b7…af2dbacked Yes | 30c | 82.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 31c | 82.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…aa3ebacked No | 63c | 78.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 80c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…a3efbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…c04cbacked No | 74c | 55.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…cfb2backed Yes | 46c | 54.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…408cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…4309backed No | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…9647backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…02a3backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…3603backed No | 62c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…e45abacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…cebcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the European Union in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the UK in his first week? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.