Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9724206fca7531faadd496d10721ef69d4c6bcd5007dbb5ca44eb795d4b9707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6e…5c3dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 70c | 3,072$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.12 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 23c | 2,301$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.39 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,426$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…28ddbacked Yes | 37c | 1,294$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 1,209$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,154$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…fc5cbacked Yes | 39c | 975.86$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 37c | 903.07$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.58 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 898.81$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…55d7backed Yes | 24c | 779.1$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 763.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 665.66$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…13e4backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…b248backed Yes | 6c | 493.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 64c | 487.49$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 481.81$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 63c | 479$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed No | 76c | 462.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…d4ccbacked Yes | 36c | 349.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 326$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 80c | 322.42$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 296.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 80c | 292$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…2d23backed Yes | 34c | 292$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked No | 74c | 271.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 60c | 266.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…f116backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…9178backed Yes | 8c | 229.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…318ebacked Yes | 45c | 223.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed Yes | 8c | 191.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 180$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 23c | 158.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…598cbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…6394backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…e404backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 80c | 115.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 62c | 106.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…928fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…3d26backed Yes | 37c | 93.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 40c | 86.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…b82cbacked No | 71c | 80.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 77.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…8087backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…3603backed Yes | 22c | 66.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 74c | 65.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…6ac0backed Yes | 25c | 60.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3724backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…c04cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…6b87backed Yes | 31c | 41.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ab…735dbacked Yes | 32c | 41.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf889…e4cebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 64c | 34.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 69c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 66c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the European Union in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the UK in his first week? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.