Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf281672b936cd0302b59fed987a5a5ddf5d85fc38a0d5e534578c85dee01a2b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 30c | 4,046$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.46 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 67c | 3,050$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,818$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 35c | 1,755$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.16 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,583$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 61c | 1,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,426$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 2c | 1,360$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 62c | 1,197$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf55…de06backed No | 55c | 1,021$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked No | 67c | 918.31$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 54c | 842.43$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.34 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 79c | 700.1$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 71c | 617.08$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…13e4backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 44c | 413.86$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 318.12$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 32c | 316.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 67c | 299.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 67c | 246.86$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…aa24backed No | 56c | 178.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed No | 77c | 129.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 62c | 108.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24febacked Yes | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 32c | 82.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 31c | 82.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 79c | 78.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…3d26backed Yes | 55c | 77.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed Yes | 23c | 66.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…2efcbacked No | 54c | 55.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf889…e4cebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 54c | 43.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…3603backed Yes | 32c | 41.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…e45abacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…36bcbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 68c | 25.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week? this page
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the European Union in his first week? No won
- Will Trump impose tariffs on the UK in his first week? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.