AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd815111215b1565a66bab8460a1cb35797abce451c21ddbdd01ac126d7ef9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,924$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 3,048$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…0cf4backed Yes | 27c | 2,541$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed Yes | 15c | 1,666$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 74c | 1,620$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,293$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 17c | 1,195$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,095$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…d19bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,019$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.37 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 5c | 999.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 19c | 964.02$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +718.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked Yes | 11c | 832.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 77c | 729.2$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 80c | 552.07$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…5b70backed Yes | 9c | 409.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 75c | 405$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 24c | 362.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…20d7backed Yes | 10c | 347.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 20c | 340.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 316.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 314.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…c6d2backed Yes | 12c | 314.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 72c | 279.96$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 4c | 275.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 22c | 259$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…f1f5backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 77c | 241.16$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 77c | 237.84$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…63d9backed No | 80c | 218.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…3b25backed Yes | 17c | 214$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…1984backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked Yes | 26c | 171.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 7c | 167.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 29c | 165.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…01c4backed Yes | 18c | 164.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…7cd6backed No | 78c | 154.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4ee3backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 115.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…05babacked No | 68c | 113.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…1d7abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…36c8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…4d60backed Yes | 26c | 79.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…48efbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…55ebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8291…eb49backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…5870backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 33.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.