Fed Rates · resolved market
US inflation >0.0% from May to June 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f05e80ebde98617021eca655e4bdfb9ffb6281bd17c382c83b97eb26cdaa50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 48c | 5,771$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…74d1backed Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 51c | 2,653$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 47c | 1,404$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.79 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 47c | 1,398$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 54c | 1,051$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 46c | 857.37$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.19 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 54c | 644.78$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 54c | 504.52$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…2e5cbacked Yes | 55c | 313.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 50c | 299.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed No | 46c | 249.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 46c | 238.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 52c | 200.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d10…daebbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…4c6bbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…f672backed Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…b9febacked Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 45c | 149.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…8d1cbacked Yes | 53c | 139.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 48c | 126.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…1e15backed No | 59c | 126.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…c28bbacked No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc3…7a9ebacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…31a7backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…9a7dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…1784backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…e7fdbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…58b6backed No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 83.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd8…916fbacked No | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 47c | 54.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…c9c6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…e13ebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 49c | 44.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…5773backed Yes | 46c | 39.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…dbd5backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…6705backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…a73cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…5a7cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…1588backed Yes | 54c | 29.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…8503backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…fddbbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…b139backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f7…829dbacked No | 56c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 49c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…6befbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.