IPO · resolved market
Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58727a3cddb1e2d7fd08f108cd73760fbe32025e27ab71668eee49ae5dafca9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 29c | 7,443$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 19c | 3,576$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 30c | 3,198$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 58c | 2,922$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 2,750$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 55c | 2,672$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,253$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 40c | 834.09$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…593dbacked Yes | 30c | 501.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 45c | 421.84$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 3c | 410.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked Yes | 31c | 328$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…f53bbacked No | 72c | 245$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7dc6backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…f5a3backed Yes | 55c | 141.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc917…9a9bbacked Yes | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…8c70backed Yes | 29c | 125.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…bb2dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…43d0backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…8061backed Yes | 61c | 39.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…04b7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation?this page
- No Reddit IPO in 2024No won
- Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at a less than $2.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $10b-12.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $12.5b-15b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.