IPO · resolved market
Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1d9acf305ffd9224738dc21dfdeb0196b6864b4151be8f030dbf6d16bdcf13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 34c | 6,478$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,289.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 15c | 2,985$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 34c | 1,261$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 62c | 1,220$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…f53bbacked Yes | 45c | 399.64$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc917…9a9bbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 50c | 197.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…81e6backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 30c | 115$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…04b7backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…8061backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…8316backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…50fbbacked Yes | 44c | 29.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…5e37backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?this page
- No Reddit IPO in 2024No won
- Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at a less than $2.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $10b-12.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $12.5b-15b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.