IPO · resolved market
Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e5d3a9bebef2dbd91931a9013ef1748bbdfc525d2c37bb3325c7a69609366d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 23c | 1,382$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 24c | 705$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 24c | 702.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…16c6backed Yes | 3c | 683.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…8c70backed Yes | 19c | 407.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4267…3417backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…bf4fbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…d658backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reddit IPO at a greater than $15b valuation?this page
- No Reddit IPO in 2024No won
- Will Reddit IPO at a less than $2.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $10b-12.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $12.5b-15b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $2.5b-5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation?No won
- Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.