World Politics · resolved market
Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4497608912444dbc7eaa41929989122e1c05f13b74c638d44ad80293a2e2840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,600 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,615$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 29c | 1,073$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 71c | 1,073$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 70c | 694$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.58 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 76c | 595$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 76c | 557$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed No | 76c | 463$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 25c | 203.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 20c | 149.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 30c | 105.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 24c | 84.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 33c | 79.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 55.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…df87backed Yes | 29c | 37.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…ae13backed No | 80c | 31.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…fd0abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…8384backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6361backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will Green Left win 30-34 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Green Left win <20 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.