World Politics · resolved market
Will Green Left win <20 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c55630b184a96a1a980381f1ed5860f3b64a721cead87eea8a751dc25bdd61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,571 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 13c | 2,298$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 17c | 2,263$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.51 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 15c | 373.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7c…3db5backed Yes | 16c | 216$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 78c | 169.65$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 23c | 155.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 118.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…ae13backed Yes | 17c | 112.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 107.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 23c | 100.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 71c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 67.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 17c | 66.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 49.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 38.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked No | 78c | 34.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Green Left win <20 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will Green Left win 30-34 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.