Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe606f496f440830e72f2510cebbe4846a537a268328467ec9964c25832fca9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 22c | 1,951$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 18c | 1,418$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.3 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 52c | 1,157$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.25 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 55c | 1,015$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.16 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…91eebacked Yes | 71c | 618.45$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…24e7backed No | 51c | 500$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 412$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 28c | 412$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.96 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 210.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 18c | 203.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 38c | 195.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…8e9abacked Yes | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 44c | 113.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 111.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…aaaebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…63fcbacked Yes | 47c | 98.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 60c | 85.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 45c | 84.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 83.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 42c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f1…4850backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 54c | 32.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…fff5backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 21.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…26d5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb0…69d2backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 8?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.