TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ac5…fff5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT5152.9%27 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Marlins vs. Bravesbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
White Sox vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$99.8
White Sox vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Padres vs. Diamondbacksbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Brewers vs. Bravesbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$65.6
Royals vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Athletics vs. Nationalsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Astros vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$15.56
Rays vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Cardinals vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Yankees vs. Rangersbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+62.1%+$49.68
Cardinals vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
White Sox vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Rays vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Blue Jays vs. Rockiesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+57.5%+$154.72
Reds vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Yankees vs. Rangersbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Brewers vs. Bravesbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Guardians vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Royals vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$20.11
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Giants vs. Piratesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Orioles vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$28.97
Cardinals vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fever vs Mercurybacked Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Dream vs Skybacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colts vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+51.8%+$31.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.