AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $390b on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3433124fd2c75b55bd861bf3e5063acfd2a344f07bc4ea28a90c6737ad45a7d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,468$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.15 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 817.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 17c | 734.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 22c | 456.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 229.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 9c | 226.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…07b5backed Yes | 8c | 183.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…762dbacked Yes | 24c | 147.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 147.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 136.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 75c | 124.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 107.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 70c | 106.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 32c | 95.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…6ab7backed Yes | 27c | 92.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e15…a5bdbacked Yes | 28c | 91.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…fff5backed Yes | 27c | 91.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 28c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…ce0dbacked Yes | 22c | 88.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…8faebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…e59dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 53.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3331…e256backed Yes | 47c | 42.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…ddf4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 77c | 31.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ea…9a44backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $390b on August 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.