AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07245d0a2b02b85eb3d9a3a1824d01497e28b3ea2d0113ae6652d1c5edf1e9b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 542.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 520.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 12c | 495.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 411.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 256.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…477bbacked Yes | 32c | 109.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…2edebacked Yes | 42c | 107.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…fff5backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 66c | 27.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…37b7backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $390b on August 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.