NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Ravens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f509f335ad4041ceff1a8684eb057b46ce9d8f573f0159e6ddb85b3b443328b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravens of Colts, Ravens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Ravens | 30c | 16,715$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,717 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Colts | 1c | 8,965$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Colts | 70c | 8,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Colts | 70c | 3,473$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.24 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Colts | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Colts | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Colts | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.98 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Colts | 19c | 1,928$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.69 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Colts | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ffaabacked Colts | 72c | 1,667$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Colts | 46c | 1,555$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.83 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ravens | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ravens | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Ravens | 48c | 953.05$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.69 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Colts | 72c | 656.94$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Colts | 12c | 523.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 142 | 15.5%22 W · 120 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Colts | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Colts | 70c | 492.78$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.13 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Ravens | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Colts | 68c | 313$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.84 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ravens | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Colts | 71c | 312.16$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Ravens | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…ad5ebacked Ravens | 68c | 265.16$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…3f96backed Colts | 41c | 221.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Ravens | 65c | 202.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…047fbacked Ravens | 70c | 202.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Ravens | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Ravens | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Colts | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Colts | 39c | 182.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Colts | 29c | 172.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…40dabacked Colts | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Colts | 28c | 143.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Ravens | 30c | 138.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Ravens | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colts | 29c | 114.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Colts | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ravens | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ravens | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…fff5backed Ravens | 66c | 91.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…f095backed Ravens | 45c | 88.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Ravens | 66c | 88.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Colts | 36c | 84.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Ravens | 30c | 78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…e89cbacked Ravens | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…c992backed Colts | 46c | 70.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Ravens | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Ravens | 29c | 67.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Colts | 72c | 59.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…18f5backed Colts | 64c | 54.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Ravens | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Ravens | 29c | 43.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…2d9abacked Colts | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked Colts | 42c | 39.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Ravens | 29c | 34.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Ravens | 38c | 32.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Colts | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…51c6backed Colts | 50c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Ravens | 75c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…1052backed Ravens | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Ravens | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.