Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ed517c85d593e57518f7c63b872ca12d6c68ad6d57c451325603b85a8b9ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 19c | 1,250$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 8c | 795.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.64 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 35c | 791$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.55 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 24c | 537.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 34c | 459.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.64 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 18c | 208.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 54c | 200.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 60c | 161.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…c822backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 32c | 126.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Yes | 47c | 84.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…9c74backed Yes | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…8e9abacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…ce9bbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 55c | 44.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 39.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…add3backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…a207backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…b291backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 8?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 8?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.