Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c393afe5577eb5e82ee416b7ac4407077b08caccc0c0379d38b77600ea8eccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,200$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 33c | 656$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 590$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 52c | 403.61$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 5c | 305.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 56c | 221.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 43c | 154.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…fa1dbacked Yes | 36c | 137.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…c033backed Yes | 18c | 82.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…618fbacked No | 42c | 79.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 74c | 71.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…5a48backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…ffdbbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…722dbacked No | 46c | 55.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…85bbbacked Yes | 24c | 55.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…0af1backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a7a6backed Yes | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…5374backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 11?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 11?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.