Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e59e5bfe2ba419a40692021a21006d5579b7f11fe4f5ba09f2919a771211f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 35c | 2,209$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.55 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,970$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 70c | 1,033$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 59c | 919.05$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 726.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 50c | 639.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.17 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 34c | 509.08$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.84 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes | 64c | 387.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 28c | 301$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 27c | 259.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…fc53backed Yes | 47c | 164.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 68c | 133.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 44c | 110.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…378ebacked Yes | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 33c | 103.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…85bbbacked No | 31c | 80.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 80.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 52c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 11?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 11?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.