Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1865211350e28e97828e4e3996b6530f2cc38a91623b1c4059a962abdc14edd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,391$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.76 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 26c | 2,232$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.95 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 1,774$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 21c | 1,651$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.53 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 10c | 1,553$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.82 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 45c | 1,485$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.82 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 11c | 1,332$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.08 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 11c | 1,247$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 70c | 903.23$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.33 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 48c | 642$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes | 13c | 593.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…13aabacked Yes | 4c | 497.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +211.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 472.7$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 443.01$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes | 65c | 401.78$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…4a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 390.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 389.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 55c | 357.12$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 49c | 301.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 20c | 299.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.48 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 75c | 271.72$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 30c | 246.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 31c | 232$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 41c | 221.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 75c | 199$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 65c | 172.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 13c | 158.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef4…ff58backed Yes | 30c | 153.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 77c | 130$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 20c | 120.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 99.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…7f24backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…8594backed Yes | 70c | 81.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 52c | 75.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…b7cdbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 79c | 65.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 51c | 48.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 50c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 79c | 29.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked No | 50c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…cfe6backed Yes | 78c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.0% on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.