Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43fa15075544935e0fd912481b2e404bf73e04113778ffa6f0e3f546ef20a4a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 40c | 2,294$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 64c | 1,721$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.82 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 32c | 864.88$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 707.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 537.1$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 61c | 399.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 374.14$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 37c | 351.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 66c | 249.91$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 35c | 246.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 36c | 241$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 42c | 238.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 160.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 64c | 149.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 126.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…5e29backed Yes | 41c | 88.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 69.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 66c | 65.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…3a53backed Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 64c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 18?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.0% on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.