Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf97ba99d759039fbc2bd656675eecf45c99716ddd54a7bfb6d4a2a4a2451b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 32c | 4,500$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,057.91 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 56c | 2,880$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.3 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 45c | 1,789$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.48 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 30c | 1,327$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.73 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 44c | 922.67$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.82 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 70c | 882$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 494.59$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.62 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 53c | 482$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 53c | 457.62$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 59c | 401.42$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 322.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 23c | 313.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 253.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.54 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 46c | 252.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 234.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 46c | 222.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 54c | 190.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 58c | 174$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 54c | 171.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…cf24backed Yes | 41c | 170.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 115.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 112$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 103.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…0f8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 71c | 86.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 84.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 38c | 57.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…4adabacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…9e74backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…329bbacked Yes | 51c | 40.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…7f24backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…b7cdbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 51c | 35.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…00b9backed Yes | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…a82ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…3c6cbacked Yes | 58c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 73c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.0% on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.