Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0 and 44.4 on October 17 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbfc8ff9f88a27c86e7eb41bfe39c970d867cc91063df94debc1b6854bb0396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 2c | 3,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 27c | 1,348$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.45 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 1,036$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked No | 11c | 886.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 800$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 767.17$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.29 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 606.98$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 403.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 170$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 27c | 77.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 50c | 54.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 63c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 35c | 43.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…8ad5backed No | 66c | 29.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 60c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0 and 44.4 on October 17 2025?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 44.5 on October 17 2025?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0 and 43.4 on October 17 2025?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5 and 43.9 on October 17 2025?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 42.5 on October 17 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.