Us Politics · resolved market
Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3236ab023a98c215becaf926a9b9927da63d51989bc6afccb28668ca418e7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,036$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked No | 71c | 542.87$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 30c | 430$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 60c | 418.64$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.35 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 58c | 288.66$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.42 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 44c | 219.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 43c | 208.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 71c | 161.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 35c | 158.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 78c | 127.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 16c | 112$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc634…50d2backed No | 60c | 102.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c35…c617backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 26c | 68.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e4…6ae9backed Yes | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.