Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ceadb2db8926fcc1e9f5b28d765ee20721f2aa9537bdb5d17f0fa2ab7cbd5cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x484a…f153backed Yes | 11c | 23,410$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed40…0086backed Yes | 17c | 17,787$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a7fdbacked No | 76c | 15,564$11,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 12c | 7,400$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 9c | 7,127$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 9c | 7,001$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.55 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…9983backed Yes | 15c | 6,553$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…463fbacked Yes | 8c | 6,231$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…d456backed Yes | 9c | 3,035$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 24c | 2,862$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 10c | 2,755$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 10c | 2,638$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 13c | 2,450$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 9c | 1,950$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…320cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,234$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 14c | 1,019$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked No | 74c | 802$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 27c | 733.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 13c | 669.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…2331backed Yes | 15c | 573.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88c…98f8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 18c | 435$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…e841backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d65…0143backed Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 20c | 341.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…bdb0backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 184.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…0c2fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…0c6cbacked Yes | 15c | 172.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…70e6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 11c | 158.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 13c | 116.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…8c17backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 14c | 93.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…21a7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Maryland US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.