Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Maryland US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4832d8bb73fa29bf29848a4687a379a2565a4ced2cb2c87b849fc51da4bcba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a7fdbacked Yes | 76c | 9,232$7,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes | 73c | 8,759$6,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed No | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 16c | 2,210$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.13 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 11c | 1,982$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.05 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 9c | 1,771$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 13c | 1,250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 14c | 1,024$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 12c | 519.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 74c | 444$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 14c | 410$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 14c | 316$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…3b35backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked No | 18c | 199.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…f2cdbacked No | 11c | 182.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 8c | 149.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 19c | 124.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 14c | 115.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked No | 15c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…6133backed Yes | 74c | 42.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 76c | 28.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…e512backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Maryland US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.