TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe66d…21a7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Poker, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Poker at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Commanders vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$84.65
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$115
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$170.43
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$117.36
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$24.42
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Raiders vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+28.2%+$34.1
49ers vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+38.9%+$36.65
Patriots vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+29.9%+$21.87
Texans vs. Cowboysbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+29.9%+$16.84
Dolphins vs. Ramsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Eagles vs. Cowboysbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+31.6%+$31.58
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+25%+$75.12
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+189.1%+$47.29
Will Jonathan Tamayo win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2024, EDT+195%+$58.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Diddy convicted of a felony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$253.83
UC San Diego vs. Michiganbacked UC San Diego · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.