College Football · resolved market
Will BYU beat Kansas by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fe057bcfd97834cc4fda1ee9b4a8768630b7c4e88033c7c45d991c1fcb1598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 45c | 2,875$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed No | 61c | 1,105$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.76 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed No | 57c | 692.84$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 51c | 564.81$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed No | 62c | 559.74$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…136fbacked No | 60c | 500.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 55c | 481.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.59 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…a986backed No | 58c | 476.19$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 37c | 404.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…30adbacked Yes | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 46c | 121.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 38c | 114.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 55c | 106.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed No | 62c | 64.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2a31backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…21a7backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf319…1d1abacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BYU beat Kansas by 4 or more points?this page
- Will BYU beat Kansas?Kansas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.