College Football · resolved market
New Mexico vs. Hawai'i
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8fe9335e7775dcacbd67724de3b0d72de99d9ab7f5e3b6ec9b15da417045bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawai'iof New Mexico, Hawai'i
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Hawai'i | 36c | 5,500$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed New Mexico | 34c | 5,218$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.26 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed New Mexico | 64c | 4,862$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.05 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hawai'i | 55c | 2,113$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.3 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Hawai'i | 39c | 1,150$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked New Mexico | 61c | 857$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.45 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Hawai'i | 71c | 306$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Hawai'i | 37c | 233.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed New Mexico | 50c | 202$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed New Mexico | 61c | 189.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed New Mexico | 61c | 167$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Hawai'i | 37c | 146.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked New Mexico | 59c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Hawai'i | 67c | 92.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed New Mexico | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked New Mexico | 63c | 81.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Hawai'i | 77c | 78.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed New Mexico | 16c | 67.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…9974backed Hawai'i | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Hawai'i | 50c | 58.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Hawai'i | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…21a7backed Hawai'i | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed New Mexico | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1f…ab5bbacked Hawai'i | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.