Music · resolved market
Diddy convicted of a felony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf2d9d58812b6442025072a87cd94756c62c5938fd112000a72ec6e58013347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0671…eee4backed No | 0c | 10,367$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…1743backed No | 12c | 4,255$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 8c | 2,410$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,177$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…1bd7backed No | 19c | 1,609$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked No | 6c | 1,408$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 12c | 1,220$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 10c | 898.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 4c | 807.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 8c | 778$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 73c | 670.79$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 11c | 622.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 13c | 586.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 12c | 577$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 432.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…231abacked No | 12c | 370.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…897dbacked No | 7c | 352.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 5c | 326.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 12c | 311$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66d…21a7backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 8c | 283.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 283.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 17c | 248.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 9c | 227.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 12c | 219$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 12c | 206.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 7c | 200.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 16c | 198.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 10c | 195.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…12edbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…6c32backed No | 8c | 123.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8369backed No | 13c | 95.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…fa4dbacked No | 13c | 94.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 23c | 91.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 17c | 89.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 16c | 69.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 71c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…0ae8backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…8c88backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.