Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8cc2e90b2a7dedcac06658515486e298fae2114f256cea39e8ef554c5bb1d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 3,043$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.54 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 26c | 3,034$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.77 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 28c | 2,600$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.99 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 1,241$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 72c | 1,203$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.88 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 45c | 759.46$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 57c | 546.92$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.34 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 79c | 424$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 72c | 400$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…45f7backed Yes | 29c | 231.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…0b9cbacked No | 73c | 190$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 26c | 181.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 180$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 25c | 175.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…b23bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 51.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 69c | 47.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 32.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 68c | 29.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 64c | 28.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 12?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 12?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on September 12?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on September 12?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.