Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on September 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459ee86f027b500709f52d0e493c9e5211bd0eff48a6bd5ded788edfaaefddfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 42c | 2,829$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.03 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 1,840$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 53c | 1,106$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.05 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 52c | 627.08$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.06 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 5c | 609.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 31c | 556.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 56c | 396.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7920…5085backed Yes | 72c | 330.8$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 72c | 309.18$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.25 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 58c | 302.27$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 293.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 49c | 256.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 78c | 255.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…1990backed Yes | 6c | 233.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 223$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 35c | 197.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 80c | 121.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 46c | 111.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…2d5bbacked Yes | 71c | 103.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2220backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…48f1backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…169dbacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 27c | 79.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 48c | 77.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…a207backed Yes | 60c | 71.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed Yes | 74c | 69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 46c | 64.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 48c | 51.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 27c | 49.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 42.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…b23bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…3a8bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…b009backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…f334backed Yes | 61c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on September 12?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 12?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 12?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on September 12?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.