Middle East · resolved market
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dcaf5c7acea7f7f0f98410b9250594b955763c5a255acc98d23ff1e4ff9db27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd34…724cbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 54c | 1,651$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.66 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 6c | 1,152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 893.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 4c | 832.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 25c | 822.83$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.18 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 793.22$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.21 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 2c | 699.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 643$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 536$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 5c | 391.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 53c | 282.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…027dbacked No | 7c | 280.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 75c | 272$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 74c | 250.71$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 23c | 241.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 36c | 192.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 88.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 58c | 85.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 37.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…73a3backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026? this page
- Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026? No won
- Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.