Us Midterms · resolved market
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ac681f07eeb4b3c9a3985d528f5ce788171e7323127bd9c3a644b9aeec3b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 79c | 3,916$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 10c | 3,298$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 22c | 2,785$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.06 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 77c | 2,105$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.73 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c6…ebefbacked No | 23c | 1,884$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 75c | 1,347$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 20c | 950$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 65c | 800$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 7c | 799$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 79c | 637.52$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed No | 19c | 529.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed No | 19c | 522.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 10c | 409.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 403.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 23c | 342.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 46c | 336$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 8c | 304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 19c | 300.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 80c | 287.24$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 78c | 256.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 73c | 250$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 234.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…fb4bbacked No | 18c | 223.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…0f0fbacked No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 75c | 192.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 8c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 75c | 166.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 56c | 166.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…6ab4backed No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b309backed Yes | 79c | 124.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 45c | 78.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 29c | 74.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…70e2backed No | 17c | 71.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 29c | 38.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.