TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,557$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.931644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No36c3,029$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.231926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes63c2,399$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.211283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c1,454$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.942114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f3…05a3backed No62c1,303$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No6c1,300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes55c1,079$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.466836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes53c1,052$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes67c742.38$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+136.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No9c719.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+84.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No11c577.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.151330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick12cpaid+977.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes46c566.99$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.383360.6%20 W · 13 L+8.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+83.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d22…ea55backed No43c499.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ad3…5a54backed No39c460$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No30c456.16$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes59c447.89$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.116521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea0e…2eefbacked Yes40c444.88$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No45c389.37$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.42842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked No55c300$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No27c286.14$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.327041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3336…87adbacked No35c285.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb7…1429backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7de…d520backed No69c248.14$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9cb…b97abacked No23c200.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No52c193.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-3.7wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c190.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.238013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes80c182.26$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.456841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed No20c175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6949…f998backed No68c169.4$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No17c165.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.632441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No62c162.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-53.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes51c138.65$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.584438.6%17 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes63c122.28$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.161931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes52c121.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c0f…0ababacked No48c112.02$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd751…c84dbacked No21c109.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked No62c106.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed No31c101.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.411338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No16c88.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.224839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No23c87.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…a2d5backed Yes62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes71c77.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.546771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes38c74.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+107%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No39c74.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bdd…0cc1backed No20c73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x437e…ac9abacked No22c72.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c71.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7212425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e4…b433backed No19c67.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes54c63.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2b…c333backed No42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a0…7404backed No27c59.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No27c52.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…f974backed No48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f05…89eebacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.252552%13 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+90.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67c…7b0fbacked Yes70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed No61c32.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.182138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd735…0aabbacked No44c23.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0973…40c4backed Yes58c20.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ce…7180backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe078…e707backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb59…5a39backed No65c16.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.