Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90eee30294ef6d4de3d8abad92da7828999ba0eb0b458968bda41e99662bfe6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,557$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 36c | 3,029$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 63c | 2,399$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.21 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…05a3backed No | 62c | 1,303$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 55c | 1,079$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.46 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 1,052$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes | 67c | 742.38$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 9c | 719.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 11c | 577.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 46c | 566.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…ea55backed No | 43c | 499.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…5a54backed No | 39c | 460$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 30c | 456.16$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 59c | 447.89$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.11 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…2eefbacked Yes | 40c | 444.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 45c | 389.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…d3aabacked No | 55c | 300$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 286.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked No | 35c | 285.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed No | 69c | 248.14$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…b97abacked No | 23c | 200.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 52c | 193.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.7wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 190.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 80c | 182.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…f998backed No | 68c | 169.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 165.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 62c | 162.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 51c | 138.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 63c | 122.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 52c | 121.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…0ababacked No | 48c | 112.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…c84dbacked No | 21c | 109.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 62c | 106.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 31c | 101.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 88.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 23c | 87.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…a2d5backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 77.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes | 38c | 74.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 39c | 74.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…0cc1backed No | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…ac9abacked No | 22c | 72.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 71.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed No | 19c | 67.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 54c | 63.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…c333backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…7404backed No | 27c | 59.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 27c | 52.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…f974backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…89eebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…7b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed No | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd735…0aabbacked No | 44c | 23.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…40c4backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…7180backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…e707backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…5a39backed No | 65c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.