TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$263,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,913 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f09…b474backed Yes0c19,866$20 inLost-$19.87130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8265…8b0cbacked Yes0c19,866$20 inLost-$19.87100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ce…3811backed Yes0c19,866$20 inLost-$19.87120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…4992backed Yes0c16,010$16 inLost-$16.01110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Yes0c14,853$15 inLost-$14.851216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdadd…0177backed Yes0c14,853$15 inLost-$14.85110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1853…6a0bbacked Yes0c14,853$15 inLost-$14.85110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf9…e7bebacked Yes0c14,775$15 inLost-$14.78128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-89.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,466$22 inLost-$22.222430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes13c3,480$452 inLost-$452.361241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Yes4c2,915$110 inLost-$1103522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…d105backed Yes5c2,600$132 inLost-$132.082825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c2,474$141 inLost-$140.871809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98cb…bd72backed Yes13c2,200$279 inLost-$279.22240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes2c2,010$43 inLost-$42.9112843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8398…047fbacked Yes5c987.82$53 inLost-$53.343622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Yes5c985$51 inLost-$50.529022.2%20 W · 70 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8507…8a79backed Yes6c902.37$50 inLost-$504734%16 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70f4…1e3dbacked Yes6c750$43 inLost-$42.751118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes6c598.64$36 inLost-$36.2323351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes8c188.85$15 inLost-$1513428.4%38 W · 96 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4adc…7639backed Yes9c169$14 inLost-$14.372737%10 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.