NFL · resolved market
Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db36ca404f1e31c4f120f2a59148553542eaba471ca899a089cdd4fef06668f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f09…b474backed Yes | 0c | 18,284$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…8b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…0177backed Yes | 0c | 17,204$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 8c | 8,699$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.23 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,695$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 11c | 1,546$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +134%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,350$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 1,175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,091$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 10c | 990.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…72b0backed Yes | 8c | 948.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0274…307bbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 731.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 19c | 595.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 11c | 531.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 17c | 376.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 8c | 340.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 231.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 9c | 199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 9c | 116.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…6980backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 19c | 73.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 23c | 69.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…cd7bbacked Yes | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another player be the top Fantasy Quarterback?this page
- Will Anthony Richardson be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback?Yes won
- Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.