TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,003 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd2b…7d58backed Yes1c4,816$42 inLost-$41.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes19c3,785$715 inLost-$715.014318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a03…f2dfbacked Yes1c2,188$30 inLost-$30.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa049…0558backed Yes18c1,598$288 inLost-$2881154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick27cpaid+171%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c1,418$17 inLost-$16.552430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes12c1,286$154 inLost-$154.284131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes22c1,257$277 inLost-$276.5823351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe521…72b0backed Yes18c1,000$180 inLost-$18060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes7c962.14$69 inLost-$69.2313217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b85…6980backed Yes8c917.45$72 inLost-$72.471330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes4c902.31$36 inLost-$35.5220440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes11c732.46$82 inLost-$81.881809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes22c710.21$153 inLost-$152.810434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef7…4206backed Yes19c700$133 inLost-$133825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c552.48$23 inLost-$22.92517.8%4 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No78c548.37$429 inWon+$119.1510246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes20c465.33$95 inLost-$95.173148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes10c464.55$44 inLost-$44.1512240.2%49 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes5c300$16 inLost-$16.3524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes18c225$40 inLost-$4010125.7%26 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6248…51cfbacked No74c165.44$123 inWon+$42.562536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef94…502ebacked Yes18c150$27 inLost-$26.762937.9%11 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes20c80$16 inLost-$16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…6134backed Yes15c70$11 inLost-$10.641931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes22c50$11 inLost-$10.8912570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked No79c24.16$19 inWon+$5.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+87.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.