TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d1b…537dbacked Yes58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb5…71f2backed Yes58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ce…11e0backed No42c2,450$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4bd…22cfbacked No42c2,395$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes2c1,720$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.673920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52e…eef2backed No42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8702100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e5…a482backed Yes11c1,431$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes36c1,383$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3513119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a5…c2fdbacked No42c1,300$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes13c1,252$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6918431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2637…31f6backed Yes58c1,250$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x674e…91abbacked Yes58c1,225$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x966b…1066backed Yes58c1,200$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…e126backed Yes58c1,200$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe257…8261backed No42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6962100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No50c1,111$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.4420049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf1…af89backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x788a…34c1backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6217…a07fbacked No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc3…ddf3backed No42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5802100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c7b4backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes25c630.31$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.497022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e6…801bbacked Yes25c589.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c492.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes26c423.1$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.721799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes16c407.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.528023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No54c382.67$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes12c359.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.163613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes59c353.05$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.317041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes45c340.66$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.422334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes34c309$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.76911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e00…4784backed Yes4c270.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes44c216.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7414530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Yes35c135$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes36c128.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes35c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4819031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe45…0261backed Yes46c92.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes40c73.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.224337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No65c67.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.859441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac6…2501backed Yes18c67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8700…e149backed No35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfa…2653backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x761b…e8f7backed Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e36…13b2backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70cb…53d1backed Yes42c38.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+217.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed No46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc707…cab7backed Yes64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ad…a546backed Yes46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad40…107ebacked No57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes48c26.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.713420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d18…5d9bbacked No57c22.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…1a48backed Yes67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.