Movies · resolved market
Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-89?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251739e160c66d839b9bb6f2aedfe3baddd1fc16b9d089aaef9cefdd94cd6266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 2,294$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.18 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 24c | 1,666$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.52 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 59c | 608.8$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.47 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 16c | 550.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.04 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 30c | 530.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 19c | 458$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 426.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 19c | 377.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…5554backed No | 76c | 375.49$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 65c | 366.39$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 42c | 353.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 33c | 345.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…595cbacked No | 50c | 326.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 306$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.02 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 43c | 253.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 77c | 232.67$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.6wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 18c | 184.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…53d1backed Yes | 11c | 156.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +217.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 36c | 151.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…6115backed Yes | 51c | 140.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 132.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 117.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 37c | 104.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b1d4backed Yes | 56c | 100.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…161dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…0261backed Yes | 24c | 96.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 46c | 87.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…6188backed No | 70c | 81.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 79.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 47c | 67.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 67c | 53.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 77c | 39.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…c0c6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-89?this page
- Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90+?No won
- Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?No won
- Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?No won
- Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.