TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TYLOOof FaZe, TYLOO
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$644,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$745,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $644,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 741 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84eb…a822backed FaZe0c35,680$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeac…32bfbacked FaZe56c18,914$10,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,680.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked FaZe55c18,848$10,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,366.3575452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TYLOO45c17,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,35050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed TYLOO45c15,723$7,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,589.0823839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked TYLOO60c15,703$9,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,308.168258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FaZe57c14,310$8,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,108.7433343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed TYLOO43c13,256$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,555.6620153.7%108 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf81…6e25backed FaZe46c11,268$5,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,172.841010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid+32.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked FaZe52c11,010$5,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,674.6192456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked FaZe55c10,000$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.9720248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TYLOO48c9,828$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,115.452,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FaZe32c9,357$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,030.632,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked FaZe54c9,000$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.9636152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FaZe55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked TYLOO63c8,981$5,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.663057.1%360 W · 270 L+40.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed TYLOO61c8,237$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.691,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked TYLOO44c8,036$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.1914145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FaZe57c7,880$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x666d…5795backed TYLOO55c5,332$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.02560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed TYLOO47c5,282$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.5510359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed FaZe58c5,217$3,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.9933359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FaZe55c5,063$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.621,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe183…62e6backed TYLOO44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.962951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b4…5e95backed FaZe54c4,450$2,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed TYLOO61c4,221$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.166756.7%38 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed TYLOO47c4,020$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.2114839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed FaZe54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9926952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed TYLOO45c3,702$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.0412451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed TYLOO44c3,353$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.4512449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FaZe54c3,343$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.0861047.7%291 W · 319 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed TYLOO45c3,087$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.9429449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed TYLOO43c3,027$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.6318557.8%107 W · 78 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed TYLOO43c3,000$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.4837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TYLOO58c2,915$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.686,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd044…a6febacked TYLOO43c2,800$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5961030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FaZe48c2,702$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.97,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked TYLOO45c2,602$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.9332548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d38…b49cbacked FaZe59c2,552$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.30per pick36cpaid-82.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TYLOO63c2,542$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.131,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked TYLOO64c2,530$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.1340137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20b8…0b16backed FaZe57c2,439$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked FaZe57c2,400$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3682642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed FaZe37c2,338$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.0437440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked TYLOO63c2,331$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.0143152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed FaZe52c2,297$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.9320745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed TYLOO45c2,252$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.623949%117 W · 122 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed TYLOO44c2,249$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.3138841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed TYLOO46c2,200$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1889450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked TYLOO43c2,175$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.7238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked TYLOO45c2,114$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.5516344.2%72 W · 91 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FaZe37c2,016$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.793,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed FaZe1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked TYLOO48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04029154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc92…649dbacked TYLOO45c1,912$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.491838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked FaZe60c1,829$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.1136453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked TYLOO40c1,802$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.6159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed TYLOO53c1,784$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.5581843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked FaZe49c1,694$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.174546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FaZe55c1,688$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.3853244.9%239 W · 293 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed TYLOO43c1,527$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.393360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked FaZe45c1,507$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.118353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TYLOO43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8551,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked TYLOO44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84020855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FaZe34c1,462$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.414,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed FaZe54c1,438$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.6384658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed FaZe55c1,428$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.91723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked TYLOO52c1,424$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.1958345.3%264 W · 319 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked TYLOO44c1,413$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.321,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6530…5578backed FaZe57c1,412$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x802f…1900backed FaZe43c1,390$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed FaZe39c1,381$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.832944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed TYLOO45c1,375$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.2555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked TYLOO44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.644546.7%21 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed TYLOO42c1,352$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.223743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52be…f772backed FaZe55c1,345$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FaZe54c1,309$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.2848040%192 W · 288 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed TYLOO44c1,290$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.295,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FaZe38c1,275$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.834,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO46c1,246$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.5564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed TYLOO62c1,204$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0496543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed FaZe54c1,200$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64825145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked FaZe53c1,200$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63994445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed FaZe56c1,200$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9932346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c7…df00backed FaZe51c1,198$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TYLOO51c1,187$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.392,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FaZe46c1,175$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.271,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfed…9d03backed FaZe56c1,165$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.281631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked FaZe40c1,139$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.566446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked TYLOO43c1,129$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.4120041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed TYLOO46c1,119$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.8614846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed TYLOO45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1127950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed FaZe44c1,106$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.724542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked TYLOO46c1,100$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.59454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed FaZe38c1,092$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9912651.6%65 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked FaZe40c1,059$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.592441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0189…ea6ebacked FaZe56c1,053$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed TYLOO44c1,034$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.0432732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0217…1579backed FaZe48c1,032$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.638336.1%30 W · 53 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FaZe37c1,031$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.294,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.