Champions League · resolved market
Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat PSV?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4333342b3ea9861f668a609bdcc3beee38d51e13db1a5ca835f908282c698e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 49c | 7,088$3,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.73 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 24c | 5,519$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.93 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 75c | 3,355$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.38 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 3,050$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 12c | 2,129$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.49 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 51c | 2,108$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.3 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 52c | 1,452$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 19c | 1,153$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.59 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…f96fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,041$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…36b4backed Yes | 75c | 962.98$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed No | 37c | 811.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.18 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 73c | 690$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 10c | 556.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 68c | 438.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.28 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 244.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.01 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked No | 42c | 157.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 37c | 152.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7a…a9a7backed Yes | 11c | 145.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 18c | 142.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…f169backed Yes | 27c | 122.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…02aebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9b2dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed No | 42c | 53.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…8e86backed Yes | 78c | 51.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…b403backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…bddcbacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74f…9051backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…6747backed Yes | 80c | 39.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…dcc2backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9185…e177backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat PSV?this page
- Will PSV beat Shakhtar Donetsk?Yes won
- Will the match between PSV and Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.