MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5920a5c73d693525fd831b97bc982da073f05b99aafaa6c1585aed0174d3bcbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Rays, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 27c | 3,684$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.74 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 49c | 2,881$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.62 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 77c | 2,043$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…6f88backed Rays | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…d6a9backed Marlins | 47c | 1,497$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.41 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…eacbbacked Rays | 53c | 1,010$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…29debacked Marlins | 47c | 1,010$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rays | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins | 74c | 821.67$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.39 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 53c | 743.74$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.96 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Rays | 3c | 541.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Rays | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Marlins | 51c | 480.39$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.39 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Rays | 9c | 472.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Rays | 37c | 380.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 64c | 321.32$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 59c | 298.91$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.78 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marlins | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Rays | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…040bbacked Rays | 54c | 184.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Marlins | 46c | 141.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Rays | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Rays | 38c | 107.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 51c | 102.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Marlins | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Marlins | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rays | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 54c | 49.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Marlins | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Rays | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Marlins | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 69c | 37.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Rays | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 37c | 35.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9aa…e4a5backed Rays | 49c | 31.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Marlins | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Rays | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rays | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Rays | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins | 72c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.