UFC · resolved market
Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a064f864f875b8cc744a478228c353c5d1166326b15a42a49fddc16094850a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Erosaof Elkins, Erosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Elkins | 25c | 12,723$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.73 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Erosa | 75c | 8,316$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Erosa | 76c | 4,233$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.57 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Erosa | 73c | 3,000$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.49 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Erosa | 74c | 2,881$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.39 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Elkins | 28c | 2,126$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.17 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Elkins | 31c | 1,930$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Elkins | 26c | 1,785$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.04 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Elkins | 24c | 1,500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.92 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Erosa | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Elkins | 27c | 1,406$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.42 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Erosa | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Elkins | 27c | 1,264$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.46 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Erosa | 71c | 1,180$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Erosa | 73c | 1,167$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.44 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Elkins | 27c | 1,148$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Elkins | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Erosa | 75c | 1,000$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.73 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Erosa | 75c | 925.33$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Erosa | 69c | 720.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.49 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Erosa | 74c | 609.45$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Elkins | 24c | 544.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Erosa | 72c | 500.92$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Erosa | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Elkins | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Elkins | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…e9cdbacked Elkins | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Erosa | 70c | 499.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Elkins | 29c | 435.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Elkins | 27c | 430$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Erosa | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Elkins | 29c | 343.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Erosa | 75c | 280$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Erosa | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Erosa | 72c | 245.42$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Elkins | 8c | 245$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Elkins | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Erosa | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…387abacked Elkins | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Elkins | 25c | 159.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Erosa | 69c | 143$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Elkins | 24c | 141.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Erosa | 72c | 140.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Erosa | 72c | 138.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Erosa | 73c | 137.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…a60abacked Elkins | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Erosa | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Erosa | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Erosa | 77c | 112.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Elkins | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Elkins | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Elkins | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Erosa | 69c | 77.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed Erosa | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…f8b9backed Elkins | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Elkins | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Erosa | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Elkins | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Elkins | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked Erosa | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Erosa | 74c | 45.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Erosa | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Erosa | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Erosa | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…dc95backed Erosa | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Erosa | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed Erosa | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…ec4cbacked Erosa | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Erosa | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Erosa | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosathis page
- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego LopesVolkanovski won
- Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean SilvaSilva won
- Dan Ige vs. Sean WoodsonIge won
- Jim Miller vs. Chase HooperHooper won
- Michael Chandler vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick ReyesReyes won
- Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey CowanCornolle won
- Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- Sumudaerji vs. Mitch RaposoMudaerji won
- Tresean Gore vs. Marco TulioTulio won
- Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio PitbullRodriguez won
- Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna JandirobaJandiroba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.